Weather Report

The greatest job in the world has to be meterologist, especially the ones on tv, the celebrity "weatherman."  First of all, it seems to be a mandatory requirement that if you're a meterologist (which are generally males, if you'll note), you have to be somewhat goofy, gregarious and maybe even a tad eccentric so that people gather around cheering as you predict the weather.  As a representative of the forecast on every morning show, it is incumbant upon them to leave the studio and hit the street, surround themselves with fans of the show who cheer and hold up signs mouthing, "I love you" to their family back home who are sitting just inches from their televisions with coffee cups in hand, "There she is!"  Then the celebrity weatherman refers back to "your local weatherman" who is usually in a studio or radio station to give your area's specific forecast (always a lesser known meterologist and without the fanfare).   The morning show celebrity meterologist seems to have to engage in some sort of schtick or joviality every day while the local guys and gals are just pleasant.  No matter what, though, all their forecasts are usually wrong.

Then there's the ones from the "Weather Channel." Without fail, the women usually end up pregnant and eventually block out the entire eastern corridor as their bellies expand before they give birth and are never seen again.  The men are the ones that usually get sent out "on location" to some horrendous weather location, either during the heart of a major storm like a blizzard or hurricane when they're often tethered to something concrete (hopefully), or they're reporting from the ruins and aftermath of a horrific weather event like a tornado.  There's also the poor guy who always seems to be reporting from some airport that's backed up with cancelled flights due to a storm.  I suspect he's usually "the new guy."

The best part of being a meterologist, however, is that you never lose your job, despite the fact that they are all generally wrong about their forecasts, at least 70% of the time.  I've never seen a less precise science.  Despite all our advanced technology and incredible knowledge, I am astounded by the inaccuracy of weather reporting.  I understand that there are times when there could be a 50% chance of rain and it could go either way, just from one town to the next, a true hit or miss.  But, when you start getting into the 75% chance of rain, I expect to see rain, not sunshine.  I expect overcast and cloudy at least part of the day.  If I hear 60%, I spend a great deal of time fretting because I know that if I cancel plans, the clouds will never come, but if I go ahead with them, there will be a deluge of rain.  I'm not just talking "luck" here, either.  Perhaps the most disturbing of all, is the inaccuracy of the forecasting where it concerns snowstorms.  Time and time again, they predict accumulations that are totally off the mark.  When they say a storm could produce less than ten inches of snow, it's generally more and best you be prepared for the worst.  When they "predict" it could be about four inches, it's a dusting that never sticks.  More often than not, people run to the stores and stock up on food when it turns out to be nothing more than rain.  Of course, when they say that it'll be a rain and sleet mix, you never bother going to the store and then wake up the next day under two feet of snow and no groceries simply because during the night, temperatures dropped to 25 degrees and everything froze.  But, when it's 36 degrees and daylight, don't expect more than rain or sleet, despite what they might tell you.  33 degrees, it's iffy, but 36 degrees means rain. 

On a positive note, however, if you're the type who did prepare by stocking up on food supplies, at least if you lose your power for any length of time, you can just take those groceries and stick them in the snow outside your back door (if you have one) to keep cold.  In fact, we stock our garage during the winter with all kinds of cold beverages.  We'll never go thirsty in the winter and we know the field mice seeking shelter in there from the lower temps can't open jars and canned goods, so no worries there.

As I once read in an explanation, a forecast is ALWAYS correct, because it's not really a prediction of what will happen, it's a statement about the frequency of what came next when similar patterns occurred in the past. "We just expect too much of them!"

I take issue with that, however.  According to my Webster's dictionary, the definition of "forecast" is:  a prediction. And a prediction is:  the telling of something in advance. There's no mention about either being based upon the past. And, frankly, based on the past, they've been notoriously wrong about predicting upcoming weather conditions. Sounds like the explanation given was construed by lawyers so the weather stations wouldn't be held liable for any unforeseen changes in the forecasts.

Then there's the ambiguous forecasting technique which scrolls across the screen, for example:  "STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. . . THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW EVENT SOMEWHERE IN WESTERN NEW JERSEY. . . GREAT UNCERTAINTY INHERENTLY EXISTS IN A FORECAST WITH THIS MUCH LEAD TIME. . AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAVY SNOW SITUATION WILL NOT DEVELOP." 

I think forecasters are in cahoots with retailers, frankly.  People hear what they want to hear, so throw them a morsel and watch them go into utter panic and race out to the local market to stock up, run to the hardware store for shovels and spreading salt and over to KMart for some new mittens for the kids who lost the last pair sledding after the unforeseen snow storm that blew through the week prior.

My favorite weather reporting is when they say it's 29 degrees "feels like 13" with the wind chills.  Where do they come up with those numbers?  Who is to say what it "feels" like?  What exactly does the difference feel like between 13, 14 or 15 degrees anyway?  "It feels like 12 degrees out here!" you yell as you chisel the ice off your windshield.  "No, no" says your neighbor, "it's more like 15, that's what the weatherman said."  "Oh, go f*ck yourself!" you scream through chattering teeth and brutal winds.  And is that determined by how many layers you're wearing or from what material your coat is?  Certainly a coat made from bear is warmer than a wool coat.  Or, is it solely based on how quickly your ears freeze if not covered and the strength of the wind?  Because even a 5 mph wind in 20 degrees is ferocious on the ears.

No matter what, however, weathermen just never lose their jobs for inaccurate forecasting.  They may lose their jobs because they show up inebriated or don't show up at all, but never because of their shoddy forecasts.  It's a great gig.  Where else can one work and repeatedly screw up and not get fired?  One can spend hours gathering information and reading Doplars, only to share that information with multitudes of people (many of whom plan their entire day or weekend based on the information provdided) and not have any consequences when the information sharing is completely wrong.  And either all the channels give you completely different readings or they tell you the same exact prediction.  I don't know which is worse, but I can guarantee they're all wrong anyway.  I used to think that Weatherman A would cheat and just look over at Weatherman B's report two channels over and then read it as if it were his own prediction.  Why not?  It's not like anyone would fire them for it.  How would they even know?

Indeed, it's the best job in the world.